Controversial political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has sensationally claimed that the just released 2019 census results favors DP William Ruto ahead of the 2022 elections.
The 2019 census figures show Kikuyu as the most populous community, followed by Luhyas and Kalenjins.
The Kambas and Luos follow at a distant fourth and fifth respectively.
Mutahi Ngunyi famed for his 2013 Tyranny of Numbers phrase believes William Ruto enjoys the same tyranny of numbers in 2022 with voting dynamics expected to remain the same.
According to Ngunyi, Ruto enjoys support from the the top three populous communities which will give him head start as he battles with Raila in other swing counties.
“Politics is all about numbers, and the 2019 census figures shows Ruto has a tyranny of numbers. Raila will have to use magic if he is to upset this equation. But sadly that is the reality about numbers. Numbers don’t lie”, he opined on the 5th Estate Youtube show.
Ngunyi however opines that other factors like the imminent referendum to introduce an executive prime minister and his deputies may alter the dynamics considerably to the disadvantage of DP Ruto.
According to Ngunyi, this explains why Raila is pushing for a referendum saying he hopes to use the new government structure to his advantage by bringing the regional kingpins he is creating on board.
Ngunyi was banned from local TV interviews over his controversial Tyranny of Numbers which was deemed decisive.
He went on to launch a 5th Estate TV Youtube channel and TV station where he shares his opinions and political commentaries.
Mutahi’s remarks are likely to conjure the memories of his 2013 Tyranny of Numbers analysis which rubbed the ODM party and CORD coalition the wrong way.
According to a source, Raila still holds the Tyrany of Numbers rallying call responsible for his defeat.
The 2019 Census Report is critical for projecting political support and candidates from Presidential to the ward reps have started burning midnight oil trying to make senses of the census numbers.
The Census report will also be used by IEBC for purposes of boundary review and delimitation-an exercise that is bound to be controversial.